Guam Atlantis Ecosystem Model Output Data for Coral Reef Ecosystems

A proof-of-concept Guam Atlantis Coral Reef Ecosystem Model has been developed and an added coral module to the Atlantis framework has been validated. The model is applied for management-strategy evaluation by simulating existing and alternative fisheries and land-use regulations and comparing the results under different management and environmental change scenarios (e.g. in terms of fish biomass, coral cover, fisherman participation). These scenarios with associated goals were identified in cooperation with Guam’s natural resource managers and federal agencies responsible for management of coral reef habitats and fisheries and used as examples in the proof-of-concept Guam Atlantis model. No one scenario reached all goals and tradeoffs are visualized with the model output. Data can be accessed on this record in the section "Distribution Info".

There is little question that declining integrity of coral reef ecosystems around Guam is eroding the ability of these systems to provide the goods and services that humans rely on. It is less clear what to do to reverse this trend. In recent years, the use of ecosystem models has been advocated as they can provide a better understanding of the impacts of human use activities on coral reef ecosystems and how to mitigate for adverse effects. They can also simulate the cumulative effect of multiple stressors. Local and federal managers in Guam expressed the need for a tool to improve understanding of (1) the vulnerability and resilience of coral reef ecosystems and approaches that could improve the recovery of these ecosystems and (2) the socio-ecological impacts of regulations that aim to improve reef-fish stocks and reef condition. The need to evaluate the efficacy of regulation efforts that allows for the recognition that people are an integral part of social-ecological systems and that people both affect and respond to ecosystem processes can be met by whole-of-system ecosystem models such as Guam Atlantis. Additionally, there is a need for clear communication to the community and stakeholders of model outcomes. Simulating the existing environmental conditions and comparing the results of the status quo (current regulations and stressors) with alternative management scenarios facilitates review and evaluation of the effectiveness of present rules and regulations governing coral reef fishery and conservation around Guam.

The data accessed on this record was published in PLoS ONE.

Weijerman M, Fulton EA, Kaplan IC, Gorton R, Leemans R, Mooij WM, et al. (2015) An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate. PLoS ONE 10(12): e0144165. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0144165

Full Report: Weijerman, M, IC Kaplan, EA Fulton, R Gorton, S Grafeld, and R Brainard (2014) Design and parameterization of a coral reef ecosystem model for Guam. U.S. Dep. Commer., NOAA Tech. Memo., NOAA-TM-NMFS-PIFSC-43. 133 + Appendices. http://dx.doi.org/10.7289/V5B27S76

Peer-reviewed publications:

Weijerman M, Fulton EA, Brainard RE (2016) Management Strategy Evaluation Applied to Coral Reef Ecosystems in Support of Ecosystem-Based Management. PLoS ONE 11(3): e0152577. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0152577

Weijerman M, Williams ID, Gutierrez J, Grafeld S, Tibbatts B, Davis G (2016) Trends in biomass of coral reef fishes, derived from shore-based creel surveys in Guam. Fish Bull 114:237–256 doi: 10.7755/FB.114.2.9

Weijerman M, Fulton EA, Kaplan IC, Gorton R, Leemans R, Mooij WM, Brainard RE (2015) An integrated coral reef ecosystem model to support resource management under a changing climate. PLoS One 10:e0144165

Weijerman M, Grace-McCaskey C, Grafeld SL, Kotowicz DM, Oleson KLL, van Putten IE. Towards an ecosystem-based approach of Guam's coral reefs: The human dimension. Marine Policy. 2016;63:8-17. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2015.09.028.

IRC

While every effort has been made to ensure that these data are accurate and reliable within the limits of the current state of the art, NOAA cannot assume liability for any damages caused by errors or omissions in the data, nor as a result of the failure of the data to function on a particular system. NOAA makes no warranty, expressed or implied, nor does the fact of distribution constitute such warranty.

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The biological diver survey data can be obtained from: nmfs.pic.credinfo@noaa.gov.

The creel fisheries data requires a written confidentiality agreement which can be obtained from: kimberly.lowe@noaa.gov.

Data can be obtained via the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Ocean Archive, accession # XXX.

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Please cite NOAA-CRED when using the biological data: Coral Reef Ecosystem Division, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

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Excel data

The initial conditions of the model are based on data from 2009-2011. The oceanographic data comes from a ROMS model developed for the Coral Triangle by Castruccio et al 2013 (J. Geophysical Res.: Oceans 118:6123-6144) and includes 1985-2007.

Creel survey data is collected on a voluntary participation of the fisherman and are not complete with some gear types being under-represented.

The oceanographic data is likely poorly resolved for Guam since it is located on the boundary of the Coral Triangle ROMS model.

The biomass, distribution and size class data of fish and invertebrates comes from intensive visual surveys conducted by PIFSC and the University of Guam Marine Laboratory. Life history data comes from Guam specific species where available supplemented with Fishbase data.

There is a positive bias in the biomass data for a number of functional species groups which makes the model skill assessment poor. More research is needed to investigate the cause of the bias.

The hindcast simulation is based on historical catch and effort data from 1985-2011. Forecast simulations are from 2011-2049 using predicted climate change time series for sea surface temperature and atmospheric CO2 from IPCC.

Sensitivity analysis and model skill assessments have been performed. These showed that the model is sensitive to primary production and positively biased for functional groups with a high biomass.

Model data is stored on an external hard drive and backed up to a server at PIFSC weekly.

A module detailing key coral reef dynamics was added to the Atlantis Ecosystem Model framework (developed by CSIRO: http://atlantis.cmar.csiro.au/).

Refer to full publication for details "Weijerman et. al., 2015".