Nate Mantua, Ph.D.

Program Lead, Landscape and Seascape Ecology

Nate Mantua is a climate scientist with research focused on climate dynamics, climate impacts on natural resources, and the use of climate information in resource management. Much of his work has focused on climate, marine life, and fisheries in the North Pacific Ocean and western North America, including understanding climate impacts on Pacific salmon ecology and salmon fisheries. Nate is a former Associate Professor at the School of Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences (2006-2012), and founding member and co-director of the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington (1995-2012).

Selected Publications

FitzGerald, A.M., D. Boughton, J. Fuller, S.N. John, B.T. Martin, L.R. Harrison, and N.J. Mantua. In press (available online). Physical and biological constraints on the capacity for life-history expression of anadromous salmonids: an Eel River, California, case study. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences.
https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2021-0229

Munsch, S.H., C.M. Greene, N.J. Mantua, and W.H. Satterthwaite. 2022. One hundred-seventy years of stressors erode salmon fishery climate resilience in California’s warming landscape. Global Change Biology 28(7):2183-2201.
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16029

Mantua, N., R. Johnson, J. Field, S. Lindley, T. Williams, A. Todgham, N. Fangue, C. Jeffres, H. Bell, D. Cocherell, J. Rinchard, D. Tillitt, B. Finney, D. Honeyfield, T. Lipscomb, S. Foott, K. Kwak, M. Adkison, B. Kormos, S. Litvin, and I. Ruiz-Cooley. 2021. Mechanisms, impacts, and mitigation for thiamine deficiency and early life stage mortality inb California’s Central Valley Chinook salmon [abstract]. In: J. Park, W. Stanbury, and M. Kermoade (eds.), Third NPAFC-IYS Virtual Workshop on Linkages between Pacific Salmon Production and Environmental Changes (May 25-28, 2021). North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission, NPAFC Technical Report 17:92-93.
https://doi.org/10.23849/npafctr17/92.93.

Peterson, J., R. Griffis, P. Woodworth-Jefcoats, A. Jacobs, A. Hollowed, E. Farley, J. Duffy-Anderson, M. Dorn, T.P. Hurst, J. Moss, L. Rogers, K. Shotwell, T. Garfield, R. Zabel, Y. deReynier, E. Shott, L. Crozier, S. Bograd, N. Mantua, J. Samhouri, J. Quinlan, K. Gore, R. Munoz, J. Leo, L. Waters, M. Burton, V. Saba, D. Borggaard, M. Ferguson, and W. Morrison. 2021. NOAA Fisheries Climate Science Strategy five year progress report. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-F/SPO-228. 157 p.
https://spo.nmfs.noaa.gov/content/tech-memo/noaa-fisheries-climate-science-strategy-five-year-progress-report

Harding, J., E. Dick, N. Mantua, B. Wells, A. Ammann, and S. Hayes. 2021. Distribution patterns of fish and invertebrates from summer salmon surveys in the central California Current System 2010–2015. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-645. 72 p.
https://doi.org/10.25923/44n2-7964

Amaya, D.J., M.A. Alexander, A. Capotondi, C. Deser, K.B. Karnauskas, A.J. Miller, and N.J. Mantua. 2021. Are long-term changes in mixed layer depth influencing North Pacific marine heatwaves? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 102(1):S59-S66.
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0144.1

FitzGerald, A.M., S.N. John, T.M. Apgar, N.J. Mantua, and B.T. Martin. 2021. Quantifying thermal exposure for migratory riverine species: Phenology of Chinook salmon populations predicts thermal stress. Global Change Biology 27(3):536-549.
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15450

Yati, E., S. Minobe, N. Mantua, S. Ito, and E. Di Lorenzo. 2020. Marine ecosystem variations over the North Pacific and their linkage to large-scale climate variability and change. Frontiers in Marine Science 7:578165 (15 p.).
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.578165

Wells, B.K., D.D. Huff, B.J. Burke, R.D. Brodeur, J.A. Santora, J.C. Field, K. Richerson, N.J. Mantua, K.L. Fresh, M.M. McClure, W.H. Satterthwaite, F. Darby, S.J. Kim, R.W. Zabel, and S.T. Lindley. 2020. Implementing ecosystem-based management principles in the design of a salmon ocean ecology program. Frontiers in Marine Science 7:342 (24 p.).
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00342

Pitman, K.J., J.W. Moore, M.R. Sloat, A.H. Beaudreau, A.L. Bidlack, R.E. Brenner, E.W. Hood, G.R. Pess, N.J. Mantua, A.M. Milner, V. Radic, G.H. Reeves, D.E. Schindler, and D.C. Whited. 2020. Glacier retreat and Pacific salmon. BioScience 70(3):220-236.
https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biaa015

Santora, J.A., N.J. Mantua, I.D. Schroeder, J.C. Field, E.L. Hazen, S.J. Bograd, W.J. Sydeman, B.K. Wells, J. Calambokidis, L. Saez, D. Lawson, and K. A. Forney. 2020. Habitat compression and ecosystem shifts as potential links between marine heatwave and record whale entanglements. Nature Communications 11:536 (12 p.).
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-14215-w

Di Lorenzo, E., A. Miller, C. Anderson, K. Karnauskas, J. Keister, N. Mantua, M. Ohman, and A. Subramanian. 2019. Forecasting ENSO impacts on marine ecosystems of the US West Coast: A joint US CLIVAR and OCB workshop (August 10-11, 2016, San Diego, California). US Climate Variability & Predictability Program (Washington, DC) and Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Program (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution). 58 p.
https://doi.org/10.5065/15kw-ep41

Crozier, L.G., M.M. McClure, T. Beechie, S.J. Bograd, D.A. Boughton, M. Carr, T.D. Cooney, J.B. Dunham, C.M. Greene, M.A. Haltuch, E.L. Hazen, D.M. Holzer, D.D. Huff, R.C. Johnson, C.E. Jordan, I.C. Kaplan, S.T. Lindley, N.J. Mantua, P.B. Moyle, J.M. Myers, M.W. Nelson, B.C. Spence, L.A. Weitkamp, T.H. Williams, and E. Willis-Norton. 2019. Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. PLoS ONE 14(7):e0217711 (49 p.).
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217711

Adelfio, L.A., S.M. Wondzell, N.J. Mantua, and G.H. Reeves. 2019. Warm winters reduce landscape-scale variability in the duration of egg incubation for coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) on the Copper River Delta, Alaska. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 76(8):1362-1375.
https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2018-0152

Gonzalez, P., G.M. Garfin, D.D. Breshears, K.M. Brooks, H.E. Brown, E.H. Elias, A. Gunasekara, N. Huntly, J.K. Maldonado, N.J. Mantua, H.G. Margolis, S. McAfee, B.R. Middleton, and B.H. Udall. 2018. Southwest. In: Fourth National Climate Assessment, volume II: Impacts, risks, and adaptation in the United States, p. 1101-1184. U.S. Global Change Research Program.
https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH25

Herbold, B., S.M. Carlson, R. Henery, R.C. Johnson, N. Mantua, M. McClure, P. Moyle, and T. Sommer. 2018. Managing for salmon resilience in California's variable and changing climate. San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science 16(2):3 (23 p.).
https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2018v16iss2art3

Halley, J.M., K.S. Van Houtan, and N. Mantua. 2018. How survival curves affect populations' vulnerability to climate change. PLoS ONE 13(9):e0203124 (18 p.).
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0203124

Jacox, M.G., M.A. Alexander, N.J. Mantua, J.D. Scott, G. Hervieux, R.S. Webb, and F.E. Werner. 2018. Forcing of multiyear extreme ocean temperatures that impacted California Current living marine resources in 2016. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 99(1, supp.):S27-S33.
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0119.1

Silber, G.K., M.D. Lettrich, P.O. Thomas, J.D. Baker, M. Baumgartner, E.A. Becker, P. Boveng, D.M. Dick, J. Fiechter, J. Forcada, K.A. Forney, R.B. Griffis, J.A. Hare, A.J. Hobday, D. Howell, K.L. Laidre, N. Mantua, L. Quakenbush, J.A. Santora, K.M. Stafford, P. Spencer, C. Stock, W. Sydeman, K. Van Houtan, and R.S. Waples. 2017. Projecting marine mammal distribution in a changing climate. Frontiers in Marine Science 4:413 (14 p.).
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00413

Fiedler, P.C., and N.J. Mantua. 2017. How are warm and cool years in the California Current related to ENSO? Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122(7):5936-5951.
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013094

Di Lorenzo, E., and N. Mantua. 2016. Multi-year persistence of the 2014/15 North Pacific marine heatwave. Nature Climate Change 6(11):1042-1047.
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3082

Wells, B.K., J.A. Santora, I.D. Schroeder, N. Mantua, W.J. Sydeman, D.D. Huff, and J.C. Field. 2016. Marine ecosystem perspectives on Chinook salmon recruitment: a synthesis of empirical and modeling studies from a California upwelling system. Marine Ecology Progress Series 552:271-284.
https://doi.org/10.3354/meps11757

Newman, M., M.A. Alexander, T.R. Ault, K.M. Cobb, C. Deser, E. Di Lorenzo, N.J. Mantua, A.J. Miller, S. Minobe, H. Nakamura, N. Schneider, D.J. Vimont, A.S. Phillips, J.D. Scott, and C.A. Smith. 2016. The Pacific decadal oscillation, revisited. Journal of Climate 29(12):4399-4427.
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1

Mantua, N.J. 2015. Shifting patterns in Pacific climate, West Coast salmon survival rates, and increased volatility in ecosystem services. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112(35):10823-10824.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1513511112

Bond, N.A., M.F. Cronin, H. Freeland, and N. Mantua. 2015. Causes and impacts of the 2014 warm anomaly in the NE Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters 42(9):3414-3420.
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063306

Mantua, N.J., L.G. Crozier, T.E. Reed, D.E. Schindler, and R.S. Waples. 2015. Response of chinook salmon to climate change. Nature Climate Change 5(7):613-615.
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2670

Pinsky, M.L., and N.J. Mantua. 2014. Emerging adaptation approaches for climate-ready fisheries management. Oceanography 27(4):146-159.
https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2014.93

Johnstone, J.A., and N.J. Mantua. 2014. Reply to Abatzoglou et al.: Atmospheric controls on northwest United States air temperatures, 1948-2012. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111(52):E5607-E5608.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421618112

Johnstone, J.A., and N.J. Mantua. 2014. Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature variability and change, 1900-2012. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111(40):14360-14365.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1318371111

Mantua, N., I. Tohver, and A. Hamlet. 2010. Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State. Climatic Change 102:187-223.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9845-2

Schindler, D.E., X. Augerot, E. Fleishman, N.J. Mantua, B. Riddell, M. Ruckelshaus, J. Seeb, and M. Webster. 2008. Climate change, ecosystem impacts, and management for Pacific salmon. Fisheries 33(10):502-506.
https://doi.org/10.1577/1548-8446-33.10.502

Crozier, L.G., A.P. Hendry, P.W. Lawson, T.P. Quinn, N.J. Mantua, J. Battin, R.G. Shaw, and R.B. Huey. 2008. Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific Salmon. Evolutionary Applications 1(2): 252-270.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-4571.2008.00033.x

Mantua, N., and R.C. Francis. 2004. Natural climate insurance for Pacific Northwest salmon and salmon fisheries: finding our way through the entangled bank. In: E.E. Knudsen, D.D. MacDonald, and Y.K. Muirhead (eds.), Sustainable management of North American fisheries: proceedings of the symposium Fisheries Sustainability in North America (Phoenix, Arizona, 22-23 August 2001). American Fisheries Society Symposium 43:127-140.

Mantua, N.J., S.R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J.M. Wallace, and R.C. Francis. 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78(6):1069-1080.
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2