Global and Regional Marine Ecosystem Models Reveal Key Uncertainties in Climate Change Projections
March 05, 2025
A study highlighting that we need further exploration and understanding of the differences in ocean biomass change between global and regional marine ecosystem models.
Climate change is affecting the world's oceans, marine ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem services that they support, including fisheries that feed millions of people worldwide. Anticipating the impacts of climate change can help society and managers to prepare for, and adapt to, changes ahead. Present understanding of climate change impacts on the world's oceans based on global models indicates a 5% loss in animal biomass with every 1°C that the planet warms. Here, we compare potential future biomass on regional scales that are most relevant for management decisions about sustainable resource use. We used regional scale ecosystem models tailored to the species and fisheries they represent. We compared climate change projections of ocean biomass changes from these regional models to corresponding areas from global models to see how well they agreed. We found key differences in climate change projections of ocean biomass between global and regional models. In some cases, both global and regional models projected biomass declines, while in others global models suggested a decline and regional models an increase.
Eddy, T. D., Heneghan, R. F., Bryndum-Buchholz, A., Fulton, E. A., Harrison, C. S., Tittensor, D. P., et al. 2025. Global and Regional Marine Ecosystem Models Reveal Key Uncertainties in Climate Change Projections Earth's Future, 13, e2024EF005537.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005537