Management-Strategy Evaluation of the Main Hawaiian Islands with the Atlantis Ecosystem Model: hind-cast simulations and ecosystem forecasting under climate scenarios

The data described here is the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI) Atlantis Ecosystem model output data for biomass and catch trends of various functional groups under different scenarios. Hind-cast simulations were run for for model validation, and forecast simulations were run for ecological forecasting under different climate change scenarios. The data used in the model comes from benthic and coral reef fish surveys conducted by Pacific Island Fisheries Science Center (PIFSC) RAMP cruises, recreational fishery data from MRIP, commercial fishery data administered by WPacFIN, bottomfish fishery-dependent and independent data from PIFSC, and sea turtle and monk seal data from the PIFSC. Model simulations of ecological forecasting were carried out and included 50 year forecast (2020-2070) simulations with and without the predicted effects of climate change (ocean warming and ocean acidification) evaluating changes in ecological and social state components.

The MHI Atlantis Ecosystem Model incorporates the coral-specific modules that were developed for the Guam Atlantis model. The model can be used for management-strategy evaluation by simulating existing and alternative fisheries and land-use regulations and comparing the results under different management and environmental change scenarios (e.g. in terms of fish biomass, coral cover, fisherman participation). A hindcast simulation is used for model validation and the model is used for ecosystem forecasting under two climate change scenarios. Data can be accessed via the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Ocean Archive, accession # 0240826.

There is little question that declining integrity of coral reef ecosystems around Hawaii is eroding the ability of these systems to provide the goods and services that humans rely on. It is less clear what to do to reverse this trend or what the societal goals are specifically in relation to social and economic objectives. In recent years, the use of ecosystem models has been advocated as they can provide a better understanding of the impacts of environmental and human use activities on ecosystems and how to mitigate for adverse effects. They can also simulate the cumulative effect of multiple stressors. Local and federal managers in Hawaii expressed the need for a tool to improve understanding of (1) the vulnerability and resilience of insular ecosystems and approaches that could improve the recovery of these ecosystems and (2) the socio-ecological impacts of regulations that aim to improve reef-fish stocks and reef condition. The need to evaluate the efficacy of regulation efforts that allows for the recognition that people are an integral part of social-ecological systems and that people both affect and respond to ecosystem processes can be met by whole-of-system ecosystem models such as the Hawaii Atlantis model. Additionally, there is a need for clear communication to the community and stakeholders of model outcomes. Simulating the existing environmental conditions and comparing the results of the status quo (current regulations and stressors) with alternative management scenarios facilitates review and evaluation of the effectiveness of present rules and regulations governing coral reef fishery and conservation around Hawaii.

Created by Mariska Weijerman 10/25/20. Updated by Lori H. Luers in 2021.

Reports:

Weijerman, Mariska, Kirsten M Leong, and Supin Wongbusarakum. 2019. “Second Hawai’i Atlantis Ecosystem Model Planning Workshop: Where Is the ‘S’ in EBFM?” National Marine Fisheries Service, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center. Administrative Report H ; 19-05. Honolulu, HI. doi:https://doi.org/10.25923/bfwa-7084.

Weijerman, Mariska. 2017. “Report of the Hawaii Atlantis Ecosystem Model Planning Workshop Held in January 2017 in Honolulu.” National Marine Fisheries Service, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center. Administrative Report H ; 17-03. doi:http://doi.org/10.7289/V5/AR-PIFSC-H-17-03.

Peer-reviewed publications:

Weijerman M, Oyafuso ZS, Leong KM, Oleson KLL, Winston M. 2020. Supporting Ecosystem-based Fisheries Management in meeting multiple objectives for sustainable use of coral reef ecosystems. ICES J Mar Sci.:13. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa194.

Weijerman, Mariska, Arnaud Grüss, Dayton Dove, Jacob Asher, Ivor D. Williams, Christopher Kelley, and Jeffrey C. Drazen. 2019. “Shining a Light on the Composition and Distribution Patterns of Mesophotic and Subphotic Fish Communities in Hawai’i.” Marine Ecology Progress Series 630: 161–82. doi:10.3354/meps13135.

Pethybridge, Heidi R., Mariska Weijerman, Holly Perrymann, Asta Audzijonyte, Javier Porobic, Vidette McGregor, Raphael Girardin, et al. 2019. “Calibrating Process-Based Marine Ecosystem Models: An Example Case Using Atlantis.” Ecological Modelling 412: 108822. doi:10.1016/J.ECOLMODEL.2019.108822.

Weijerman M, Fulton EA, Brainard RE. 2016. Management Strategy Evaluation Applied to Coral Reef Ecosystems in Support of Ecosystem-Based Management. PLoSOne 11:e0152577. doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0152577

Weijerman M, Fulton E, Kaplan I, Gorton B, Leemans R, Mooij W, et al. An integrated coral reef ecosystem model to support resource management under a changing climate. PLoS One 1:e0144165. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0144165

IRC

This dataset includes MHI Atlantis ecosystem model output for various functional groups (groups of species aggregated based on diet, life history, ecological role or economic importance). Each csv file represents a different set of parameters for either hind cast or forecast simulations as well a a calibration simulation without stressors.

While every effort has been made to ensure that these data are accurate and reliable within the limits of the current state of the art, NOAA cannot assume liability for any damages caused by errors or omissions in the data, nor as a result of the failure of the data to function on a particular system. NOAA makes no warranty, expressed or implied, nor does the fact of distribution constitute such warranty.

Main Hawaiian Islands in the Hawaiian Archipelago.

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NOAA Ecosystem Sciences Division (ESD) Data Sharing Recommendations, version 9.0 updated August 12, 2015:

ESD welcomes the opportunity to collaborate on research issues contributing to the scientific basis for better management of marine ecosystems. ESD has a very diverse set of field activities that generates large volumes of data using an array of data collection protocols.

The following recommendations are for your consideration as you use this data:

1) Data analyses should take all field exigencies into account. The most effective way to do this would be active collaboration with ESD principal investigators.

2) In all presentations, product releases, or publications using data generated by ESD, proper acknowledgement of both ESD and the individuals responsible for data collection is expected. Citing the DOI (if available) is preferred, a non-DOI example is listed below.

3) If you collect or generate data for the same study areas, ESD requests that you share relevant information on complimentary data collections.

4) Those receiving data are strongly urged to inform the ESD Data Management Team of any errors and discrepancies that are discovered during the course of using these data. They are further urged to bring to the attention of the Team all problems and difficulties encountered in using these data. This information is necessary in order to improve the collections and to facilitate more efficient and economical data processing and retrieval. The users are asked to supply copies of any missing data that may be located, and to provide information as to significant subsets and special aggregations of data that are developed in using the material provided.

Example citation:

"This publication makes use of data products provided by the Ecosystem Sciences Division (ESD), Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center (PIFSC), National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with funding support from the NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program (CRCP). The analysis and interpretations presented here are solely that of the current authors.”

This specific dataset can be obtained via the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Ocean Archive, accession # 0240826.

The biological diver survey data can be obtained from the Ecosystem Sciences Division at PIFSC.

The MRIP and commercial fisheries data requires a written confidentiality agreement which can be obtained from the Fisheries Research and Monitoring Division at PIFSC.

The monk seal data can be obtained from the Protected Species Division at PIFSC.

All other data used in the MHI Atlantis ecosystem model was derived from published reports or articles.

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Please cite PIFSC Ecosystem Sciences Division or the Hawaii Atlantis Technical Memorandum when using any of the data

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Model output data of hindcast and forecast data showing the changes in biomass and catches per functional group per year. Model platform used was the Atlantis model version 6519.

The initial conditions of the model are based on biological data from 2010-2015. The oceanographic data comes from a HYCOM model developed for Hawaii by Dr. Yanli Jia at the International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa and are available for download at: http://apdrc.soest.Hawai’i.edu/datadoc/hycom_Hawai’i_0.04_kpp.php. Model output years were the non-particular years 2010-2013.

Recreational fishery data is collected on a voluntary participation of the fishers and some gear types and night-time fishing are under-represented.

The oceanographic data is poorly resolved for the small spatial scales of the model areas since the model resolution is approximately 4x4 km which encompasses multiple Atlantis areas from the coast to offshore.

The biomass, distribution and size class data of reef fish and invertebrates comes from intensive visual surveys conducted by PIFSC, these are all day time surveys.

Little is known about the distribution and abundance of species other than commercial important bottomfish in depths > 30 m. These data are based on a peer reviewed publication (Weijerman et al 2018).

The hindcast simulation based on historical recreational catch data was only available from 2004-2015. For the years between 1995-2003 and 2016-2017 values were imputed by bootstrapping values from 2004-2015. Forecast simulations are from 2020-2079 using projected climate change time series for sea surface temperature and atmospheric CO2 from IPCC (CMIP5; http://pcmdi9.llnl.gov/ esgf-web-fe/).

Sensitivity analysis and model skill assessments have been performed. These showed that the model is sensitive to plankton and shark biomass.

Model data is stored on an external hard drive and backed up to a server at PIFSC weekly.

The Atlantis Ecosystem Model framework (developed by CSIRO: http://atlantis.cmar.csiro.au/) was used as the model platform.