Hawaii Atlantis model input files calibrated for testing CMIP6 climate scenarios

The files described here are the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI) Atlantis Ecosystem model input files used in for testing CMIP6 climate scenarios developed by main Hawaiian Islands ROMS. These input files were used to run forecast simulations under three different CMIP6 climate change scenarios: low-emission (SSP1-2.6), moderate-emission (SSP2-4.5), and high-emission (SSP3-7.0). Files included are parameter (.prm), initial conditions (.nc), and land-based source pollutants (LBSP) forcing files. The parameter files include a run file, biological parameters, forcing parameters (list climate and pollution forcing files), harvest parameters (fishing mortality), and physics parameters. The LBSP forcing files are time series files representing spatial deposition of nutrients and sediments from land to the nearshore regions covered by Hawaii Atlantis. In recalibrating the current model based on updated climate forcing files (ROMS projections), the parameter and initial conditions files have been adjusted since initial model development. The ROMS projections used to force Hawaii Atlantis are not included in this data set, as they are from a different project.

Hawaii Atlantis was initially developed at PIFSC and further details regarding the model, as well as outputs of a model run based on older inputs, are hosted as InPort catalog item 55245. The LBSP forcing files hosted here were developed based on Ocean Tipping Points project data as part of initial model development.

The purpose of this modeling effort is to address the pressing need for a comprehensive understanding of the ecological and socio-economic impacts of climate change on coral reef ecosystems in Hawaii. Given the compounding challenges faced by these ecosystems (e.g., ocean acidification, rising temperatures, fishing activity, and pollution), there is a need to assess their vulnerability and resilience to inform management. By integrating high-resolution climate scenarios downscaled for the main Hawaiian Islands, species interactions, fishing impacts, and land-based pollution in a spatially-explicit ecosystem model, this modeling effort projects how coral reef ecosystems may evolve over time. Through scenario analyses, the research seeks to identify potential shifts in ecosystem dynamics, such as changes in coral cover and fish assemblages, and assess spatial variations in vulnerability. By providing insights into the impacts of climate change on coral reef ecosystems, this research aims to inform effective management strategies and enhance the resilience of these vital ecosystems in Hawaii.

Created by Lansing Perng 04/02/24.

IRC

Not Applicable

Model input data including initial biomass conditions and land-based sources of pollution. Model platform used was the Atlantis model version 6645.

The initial conditions of the model are based on biological data from 2010-2015. The oceanographic data comes from a HYCOM model developed for Hawaii by Dr. Yanli Jia at the International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa . Model output years were the non-particular years 2010-2013.

The biomass, distribution and size class data of reef fish and invertebrates comes from intensive visual surveys conducted by PIFSC, these are all day time surveys.

Little is known about the distribution and abundance of species other than commercial important bottomfish in depths > 30 m. These data are based on a peer reviewed publication (Weijerman et al 2018).

The input parameter files are user defined flags related to model customization.

The LBSP files represent current (2010–2015) sediment and nutrient inputs into coastal waters. To get seasonal patterns we downloaded monthly climatological rainfall data (1981–2010) from 75 coastal stations in the inhabited Hawaiian Islands11 and took the mean rainfall for each Atlantis box.

Sensitivity analysis and model skill assessments have been performed. These showed that the model is sensitive to plankton and shark biomass.

PIFSC ITS performs scheduled backups

The Atlantis Ecosystem Model framework (developed by CSIRO: http://atlantis.cmar.csiro.au/) was used as the model platform.