Habitat Assessment and Restoration Planning (HARP) Model

We developed the Habitat Assessment and Restoration Planning (HARP) Model to help prioritize salmon habitat restoration actions in in the Pacific Northwest. The model uses a process-based framework in which changes in drivers such as land use, habitat restoration actions, or climate change alter habitat conditions in streams and rivers, which then alter input parameters to the salmon life cycle models (illustration below). Habitat scenarios can be created for any combination of restoration actions, land use change, and climate change. The salmon life cycle models then run the habitat scenarios to identify which types of habitat restoration are most likely to aid salmon recovery and increase resilience of salmon populations to climate change.

• To date we have run the HARP model in the Chehalis River basin, the Snohomish River basin, and the Stillaguamish River basin. Links to HARP model publications, and data sets and model code for the Stillaguamish-Snohomish and Chehalis basin applications are below. A prior version of the model and contract reports describing the model development are available on the Chehalis Watershed Assessment and Life-cycle Modeling web page.

Publications
 

HARP model description and restoration scenario results 

Jorgensen, J., C. Nicol, C. Fogel, and T. Beechie. 2021. Identifying the potential of anadromous salmonid habitat restoration with life cycle models. PLoS ONE 16(9):e0256792.

Beechie, T., C. Nicol, C. Fogel, B. Timpane-Padgham. 2021. A process-based assessment of landscape change and salmon habitat losses in the Chehalis River basin, USA. PLoS ONE 16(11):e0258251.
 

Modeling effects of climate change and restoration scenarios 

Beechie, T., C. Fogel, C. Nicol, J. Jorgensen, B. Timpane-Padgham, P. Kiffney. 2023. How does habitat restoration influence resilience of salmon populations to climate change? Ecosphere 14(2).

Nicol, C., C. Fogel, J. Jorgensen, and T. Beechie. 2022. Spatially overlapping salmon species have varied response to early life history mortality from increased peak flows. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 79: 342-351 DOI: 10.1139/cjfas-2021-0038

Fogel, C., C. Nicol, J. Jorgensen, T. Beechie, B. Timpane-Padgham, P. Kiffney, G. Seixas, and J. Winkowski. 2022. How riparian and floodplain restoration modify the effects of increasing temperature on adult salmon spawner abundance in the Chehalis River, WA. PLOS ONE 17(6): e0268813.
 

Shade-temperature model

Seixas, G.B, T.J. Beechie, C. Fogel, and P.M. Kiffney. 2018. Historical and future stream temperature change predicted by a lidar-based assessment of riparian conditions and channel width. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 54(4):974-991. doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12655

Contract report: Stillaguamish River basin (Phase 2) – climate change, habitat restoration, and hatchery effects

Beechie, T. J., A. Goodman, M. Lowe, O. Stefankiv, and B. Timpane-Padgham. 2023. Evaluating Effects of Climate Change, Restoration Scenarios, and Hatchery Effects on Chinook Salmon in the Stillaguamish River Basin with the HARP Model. U.S. Department of Commerce, Contract Report NMFS-NWFSC-CR-2023-xx.

Contract report: Stillaguamish and Snohomish River basins – habitat restoration options

Beechie, T. J., A. Goodman, M. Lowe, O. Stefankiv, and B. Timpane-Padgham. 2023. Habitat Assessment and Restoration Planning (HARP) Model for the Snohomish and Stillaguamish River Basins. U.S. Department of Commerce, Contract Report NMFS-NWFSC-CR-2023-02. 

Stillaguamish and Snohomish River Basin Applications

In the Stillaguamish and Snohomish basins, we analyzed restoration potential for nine drivers of habitat change: migration barriers, fine sediment, wood abundance, riparian shade, channel straightening, bank armor, beaver ponds, floodplain habitats, and estuary habitats, and modeled effects of those changes on spawner abundance of coho salmon, Chinook salmon, and steelhead. Links to supporting data and  model code are below.

Data
 

Model Code

Model code is available at:

https://zenodo.org/record/7570349
 

Chehalis River Basin Application

In the Chehalis River basin, we analyzed the effects of changing eight drivers of habitat change: migration barriers, fine sediment, wood abundance, riparian shade, channel straightening, bank armor, beaver ponds, and floodplain habitats, and modeled effects of those changes on spawner abundance of coho salmon, Chinook salmon, and steelhead. Links to supporting data and model code are below.

Data
 

Model Code

Model code is available at https://bitbucket.org/noaalcm/asrp/src/v14/.

Model code for Fogel et al. (2022) is available at: https://zenodo.org/record/6590079#.YpJYJBPMJpQ.