Climate

NOAA Fisheries’ scientists work every day at sea, on shore, and in laboratories to track and forecast changes in U.S. marine ecosystems and understand their impacts. We use our Climate Science Strategy to proactively increase the production, delivery, and use of climate-related information to help guide our science and management activities. The Strategy is being implemented through regional action plans. These plans identify high priority regional climate-related information needs and actions so that we can better track, understand, project, and respond to marine ecosystem changes on a regional level. 

Tracking Change

Information on current conditions—and what is changing—is critical in providing sound scientific advice for sustainable management. NOAA Fisheries conducts and supports a variety of efforts to provide early warnings of changes in marine ecosystems. This includes monitoring and tracking physical, chemical, biological, and socio-economic conditions related to oceans, fisheries, and protected marine life.

• Ocean Adapt
• Ecosystem Status Reports
• Integrated Ecosystem Assessments
• Population Assessments

Understanding Mechanisms

Understanding why and how the changing climate and oceans affects marine life—and the communities that depend on them—will help us better forecast future conditions and identify how to reduce those effects. We are building a coalition of partners to improve our understanding of how and why the changing climate and oceans impact marine ecosystems. This includes identifying the drivers of change as well as which resources and ecosystems may be most at risk and what actions might reduce risks and increase resilience.

• Climate Vulnerability Assessments
• NOAA Climate and Fisheries Adaptation Program
• NOAA Coastal and Ocean Climate Applications Program

Projecting Future Conditions and Responses

NOAA Fisheries and its partners are using a variety of approaches to project how marine ecosystems and specific resources might change in the future. For example, we are looking at how the distribution and abundance of marine resources may change. We are considering how these changes may affect businesses and communities, and how to prepare and respond to these changes. 

Effective resource management depends on robust information about past, current, and projected future conditions of marine ecosystems. Efforts are under way to deliver better projections to help improve stock assessments, assess risks, and evaluate best management strategies under a range of likely future climate and ocean conditions.

• NOAA Alaska Climate Integrated Modeling Project 
• Climate and Fisheries Adaptation Program
• Stock Assessment Improvement Plan
• Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program
• Marine Prediction Task Force Funded Projects

Changing climate and oceans affect nearly every aspect of our mission, from fisheries management and aquaculture, to conservation of protected resources and vital habitats.

To address these growing impacts, NOAA Fisheries is gathering and using more information on climate and ecosystem changes in resource management. We are implementing our Climate Science Strategy, Regional Climate Action Plans, and an Ecosystem-based Fisheries Management Road Map. This will help scientists, fishermen, managers, and coastal businesses better understand what’s changing, what’s at risk, and what actions are needed to safeguard America’s valuable marine resources and resource-dependent communities. We are committed to using the best available science to prepare for and respond to climate change through informed management decisions. 

Adapting Fisheries Management to New Challenges

Changing ocean conditions are affecting the location of fish stocks, the productivity of fish stocks, and the fishing industry’s interactions with bycatch, protected species, and other ocean users. Fish stocks could become less productive or move out of range of the fishermen who catch them. These shifts can cause social, economic, and other impacts on fisheries and fishing-dependent communities. As a result, fishing industries and coastal businesses can face significant challenges in preparing for and adapting to changing climate and oceans. And there is much at risk—marine fisheries and seafood industries supported more than $244.1 billion in economic activity and 1.74 million jobs in 2017. 

To reduce impacts, increase resilience, and take advantage of new opportunities, NOAA uses the best available science to evaluate fisheries management strategies in the face of climate change. We are exploring potential management approaches, and have identified challenges and recommendations for improving science and management. In partnership with the Regional Fishery Management Councils, Fishery Commissions, and states, we are taking steps to help fisheries prepare for and respond to changing climate and ocean conditions including:

• Ensuring well-managed fish stocks with a sustainable biomass and stock structure
• Producing regional ecosystem status reports to track and provide early warnings of climate and ecosystem changes in each region
• Using climate vulnerability assessments of major fish stocks to better understand their vulnerability and support management action
• Using scenario planning and other tools to identify effective fishery management strategies for current and future conditions

Spotlight on Science: Next Generation of Stock Assessments

Changing climate and ocean conditions directly impact the collection and analysis of data used in the stock assessment process for U.S. fisheries management. We are implementing a Next Generation Stock Assessment Enterprise framework to address a suite of new demands and challenges. This includes determining how best to account for the effects of changing ocean conditions. The goal is to ensure sustainable, well-managed stocks and stock structure using available climate information.

Spotlight on Management: Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management

Our ecosystem-based fisheries management approach is a vital tool for helping fishery managers and fishermen prepare for and adapt to climate change. It takes a holistic view of the entire ecosystem to more effectively assess the health of any given fishery. EBFM considers the impacts on fish stock productivity from social, economic, and ecological variables—such as changing ocean conditions—across multiple fisheries and habitats. It is a cornerstone of NOAA's efforts to sustainably manage the nation's marine fisheries. Our EBFM Policy and Road Map describe how we implement ecosystem-based fisheries management.

At the regional level, regional fishery management councils develop fishery ecosystem plans. These plans help fishery managers determine whether management effectively incorporates core ecosystem principles. 

A Role for Aquaculture

Intensifying droughts, storms, and other climate-related events have revealed substantial vulnerabilities for land-based food production. When we look at the future of our food systems, we have to consider a growing population, a changing climate, and increasing strain on our natural resources. Aquaculture is an opportunity to complement wild harvest and sustainably increase our domestic food supply.

Building sustainable marine aquaculture—ocean farming of fish, shellfish, and seaweeds—can reduce resource pressure and present novel resilience opportunities for a changing environment. While not immune to the effects of climate change, aquaculture producers have more control of fish and shellfish raised in ocean-based farming operations. They can keep juvenile finfish and shellfish in hatcheries longer to safeguard them during the most vulnerable phase of development. And ocean-based farming operations generally require less fresh water and land resources, and produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions to produce food than land-based farming. 

Additionally, aquatic crops like shellfish and seaweed provide important ecosystem services, including water filtration and the reduced ocean acidification around farm sites. Aquaculture farms can also provide habitat for fish and crustaceans, increasing an area's biodiversity and benefiting wild populations. NOAA scientists are studying the nitrogen removal that shellfish aquaculture can provide to coastal communities and seaweed’s potential to decrease carbonic acid—the main perpetrator of ocean acidification.

Aquaculture’s role in climate change resilience

Aquaculture supports the United Nations’ sustainability goals

Conserving and Rebuilding Protected Species

Climate change is affecting marine life. Warming oceans, rising sea levels, ocean acidification, droughts, and floods change the productivity of our waters. Many of the marine species we work to conserve and protect, including endangered and threatened species, are already compromised. They may be negatively impacted by these rapid environmental shifts. 

NOAA’s sound science approach underlies our work addressing climate change challenges to our marine species conservation, management, and recovery mission. We are working with partners to improve our scientific understanding of the impact on protected species. And we are using the best available science to inform our recovery and conservation efforts and enhance species’ resilience and adaptation strategies. For example, we are: 

• Developing a climate resilience toolkit with climate science data, maps, guidance, an expert database, and many other resources for U.S. climate change stakeholders
• Conducting climate vulnerability assessments for marine mammals and sea turtles to better understand these species’ vulnerability 
• Developed guidance to inform Endangered Species Act decisions (PDF, 9 pages) in light of anticipated changes in ocean conditions
• Conducting scenario planning exercises to help identify science and management needs to support recovery actions for Atlantic salmon, North Atlantic right whales, and Puget Sound salmon
• Conducting climate-smart conservation training for NOAA staff and partners to help them learn about our marine-focused climate adaptation tools and how to incorporate them into their work

Protecting and Restoring Habitat

Climate change is accelerating habitat loss, disrupting fisheries, and increasing storm frequency and intensity. As a result, the demand and need for habitat protection and restoration solutions continues to grow. Coastal, riverine, and marine habitats provide us with countless climate resilience benefits, from nursery grounds for fish to protection from storms. 

NOAA Fisheries has a long-standing history of working with partners to protect and restore coastal and marine habitat to sustain fisheries and recover protected species. This work supports climate-resilient coastal communities and the storage of carbon in coastal habitats. In addition, coastal habitat restoration supports long-term economic recovery across a diversity of sectors. A recent study found that habitat restoration created on average 15 jobs per million dollars spent. Up to 30 jobs per million dollars are created for labor-intensive restoration projects. 

We provide technical and financial assistance to thousands of coastal habitat restoration projects. They support communities that rely on those habitats for flood protection, natural resources, and jobs. For example, the Southern Flow Corridor project in Tillamook County, Oregon restored tidal wetland connectivity to more than 400 acres in the Tillamook estuary. This work not only restored critical habitat for endangered Oregon Coast coho salmon but also reduced local flooding and protected more than 500 structures.

NOAA Fisheries has recently completed a climate vulnerability assessment in the Northeast to consider climate impacts on fish habitat. The results will enable resource managers to prioritize habitat research, protection, and restoration initiatives.

We also work with federal agency partners to ensure that adverse habitat impacts to the fish, wildlife, and cultural “trust” resources that NOAA conserves and manages are avoided or minimized.