Climate Change and Adaptation

Our climate change and adaptation research can be broken down into the following sub-themes: 

Integrated Climate Modeling (ACLIM, GOACLIM)

• The Alaska Climate Integrated Modeling (ACLIM) and Gulf Of Alaska Climate Integrated Modeling (GOACLIM) projects are interdisciplinary collaborations to project and evaluate climate impacts on marine fisheries, fleets, and fishing communities in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska, respectively. This multi-disciplinary modeling effort applies a regional lens to global climate models. Scientists are combining regional socio-economic, oceanographic data and biological models including single-species, multispecies and ecosystem models to develop a regional multi-model (an ensemble model) to provide quantitative advice to support resource management given climate variability and long-term change. Economists and social scientists are integrating fleet models, regional economic models, and adaptation models to understand potential fleet responses to climate impacts and the economic consequences to communities. 
• ACLIM
• GOACLIM
• Contact: chang.seung@noaa.gov, sarah.wise@noaa.gov, or marysia.szymkowiak@noaa.gov 

Climate Adaptation

• ESSR is working to examine numerous elements of adaptation in the face of climate change in North Pacific fisheries and communities. This work includes:  
  • Gulf of Alaska Climate Integrated Modeling Project Socioeconomics
    • Contact: marysia.szymkowiak@noaa.gov 
  • Bering Sea Fisheries Adaptation planning
    • Contact: sarah.wise@noaa.gov
  • Bioeconomic modeling
    • Contact: michael.dalton@noaa.gov

Individual, Fleet, and Community Climate Vulnerability

• ESSR is examine climate vulnerability across individuals, fleets, and communities that participate in North Pacific fisheries. This includes work assessing Climate Change Vulnerability in Alaska’s Fishing Communities (Himes-Cornell and Kasperski 2015), used in ACEPO community sketches. Bioeconomic models that use ACLIM and GOACLIM products which apply to specific crab and groundfish fisheries, namely BSAI Pacific Cod, GOA Pacific Cod, BSAI Northern Rock Sole, Bristol Bay Red King Crab, EBS Snow Crab, EBS Tanner Crab. ESSR is also working with fishing communities to understand climate risk and vulnerability using the capital assets framework. 
  • Contact: marysia.szymkowiak@noaa.gov or stephen.kasperski@noaa.gov 

Ocean Acidification Research

• Researchers are examining the effects of climate change and ocean acidification on maximum economic yield (MEY) in support of elements of NOAA’s Next Generation Stock Assessment modeling through the application of environmental covariates. 
  • Contact: michael.dalton@noaa.gov
• Using a participatory modeling approach, researchers are also developing qualitative network models with Gulf of Alaska coastal communities to understand dependencies on the marine ecosystem, experiences of ocean acidification and climate change, and how to build resilience, see Gulf of Alaska Regional Vulnerability Assessment
  • Contact: marysia.szymkowiak@noaa.gov 

Fisheries Adaptation Planning

• ESSR is undertaking participatory research nested in local and regional fisheries networks to  advance an understanding of climate adaptation and resilience for communities highly engaged and dependent upon fishing for economic, social, and cultural well-being. Through this work, fishing communities will develop fisheries adaptation plans with targeted and prioritized strategies for adaptation with an implementation scheme and continued monitoring. 
  • Contact: marysia.szymkowiak@noaa.gov