"Research in Alaska"

The northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) population in the Pribilof Islands Archipelago (on St. Paul and St. George Islands, Figs. 1-3) makes up approximately 50% of the world population. Smaller breeding colonies are located on the Kuril and Commander Islands in Russia, Bogoslof Island (Figs. 1 and 4) in the southeastern Bering Sea, and San Miguel Island (Fig. 5) off California. The rookeries at San Miguel and Bogoslof Islands probably originated in the late 1950s (DeLong 1982) and 1980 (Lloyd et al. 1981), respectively.

Alaska Fisheries Science Center Quarterly Report

Alaska Fisheries Science Center Quarterly Report

Learn more about the protected beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) that reside year-round in the waters of Cook Inlet, Alaska.

In 1953, the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (OCSLA) (43 USC 1331-1356) charged the U.S. Secretary of the Interior with the responsibility for administering minerals exploration within and development of the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). The Act empowered the Secretary to formulate regulations so that its provisions could be met. The OCSLA Amendments of 1978 (43 USC 1802) established a policy for the management of oil and natural gas in the OCS and for protection of the marine and coastal environments. The amended OCSLA states that the Secretary of the Interior shall conduct studies in areas or regions of sales to ascertain the “environmental impacts on the marine and coastal environments of the Outer Continental Shelf and the coastal areas which may be affected by oil and gas development” (43 USC 1346).

The Southeast Coastal Monitoring project (SECM) is a component of the NOAA Auke Bay Laboratories salmon research program which has sampled juvenile salmon and associated biophysical parameters in northern Southeast Alaska (SEAK) since 1997 utilizing the NOAA Ship John N. Cobb and chartered trawl vessels. Sampling juveniles as they migrate to the Gulf of Alaska, after high-mortality periods of freshwater incubation and early marine residency, provides information on year-class strength that can be used with associated environmental data to forecast abundance of the fish when they return as adults. Data from these annual surveys have been used to develop models that predicted SEAK pink salmon harvests within 16% of actual harvests for 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, and 2009. However, this forecast accuracy was not achieved in 2006, when pink salmon harvest was well below both the SECM forecast based on juvenile salmon abundance and the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) forecast based on previous pink salmon harvest time series. Despite this overestimate, the 2006 SECM forecast accurately identified a decline in average pink salmon harvest. The ADF&G is now incorporating the SECM juvenile data into their annual harvest time series forecast.

The North Pacific right whale (Eubalaena japonica) was heavily exploited by both nineteenth century whaling and recent (1960s) illegal Soviet catches. Today, the species remains extremely rare especially in the eastern North Pacific.

In 1953, the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (OCSLA) (43 USC 1331-1356) charged the U.S. Secretary of the Interior with the responsibility for administering minerals exploration and development of the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). The Act empowered the Secretary to formulate regulations so that its provisions might be met. The OCSLA Amendments of 1978 (43 USC 1802) established a policy for the management of oil and natural gas in the OCS and for protection of the marine and coastal environments. The amended OCSLA states that the Secretary of the Interior shall conduct studies in areas or regions of sales to ascertain the “environmental impacts on the marine and coastal environments of the outer Continental Shelf and the coastal areas which may be affected by oil and gas development” (43 USC 1346).

The Southeast Alaska Coastal Monitoring (SECM) project has been sampling juvenile salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) and associated environmental parameters in northern Southeast Alaska (SEAK) since 1997 to better understand effects of environmental change on salmon production. A pragmatic application of this effort is to forecast the abundance of adult salmon returns in subsequent years. Since 2004, juvenile peak salmon catch per unit effort (CPUE) from SECM, modified by other environmental parameters as appropriate, has been used to forecast harvest of adult pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) in SEAK. The forecast of 16.1 million fish for 2008 was within 2% of the actual harvest of 15.9 million fish. This represents the fourth forecast over the period 2004-2008 which was within 11% of the actual harvest. In 2006, however, the harvest was substantially different from the forecast. Although a simple CPUE model did indicate a downturn in harvest for 2006, the forecast was nonetheless 200% higher than the actual 2006 harvest. These results show that the CPUE information has great utility for forecasting year class strength of SEAK pink salmon, but additional environmental data are needed to avoid “misses” such as the 2006 return. Since 2007, the forecast model was developed using stepwise multiple regression, jackknife hindcast analysis, and bootstrap confidence intervals. A four-parameter model was selected as the “best” forecast model for 2009. Juvenile pink salmon CPUE in northern SEAK accounted for 82% of the variability in annual harvest of SEAK pink salmon over the 1997-2008 time period. The amount of variability explained was improved to 99% when the May 20-m integrated sea water temperatures and mixed-layer depths (from the SECM strait habitat) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index were included in the four-parameter multiple regression model. The 2009 forecast from the four-parameter model, using data collected in 2008, is 44.4 million fish, with an 80% bootstrap confidence interval of 37-52 million fish. Juvenile pink salmon peak CPUE collected in southern SEAK from 2005-2007 was highly correlated (r = 0.99) with the peak CPUE from northern SEAK in those years, and was not correlated (r < 0.01) with the residuals from the forecast model. Because the pattern of juvenile abundance was similar for the two areas, no additional variation in the harvest was explained by including the southern region data. However, that time series includes only three years of data; more years may provide additional information on regional variation in pink salmon year-class strength, especially for years when the two areas have distinctly different environmental conditions.

The northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) population in the Pribilof Islands Archipelago (on St. Paul and St. George Islands, Figs. 1-3) makes up approximately 50% of the world population. Smaller breeding colonies are located on the Kuril and Commander Islands in Russia, Bogoslof Island (Figs. 1 and 4) in the southeastern Bering Sea, and San Miguel Island (Fig. 5) off California. The rookeries at San Miguel and Bogoslof Islands probably originated in the late 1950s (DeLong 1982) and 1980 (Lloyd et al. 1981), respectively.