2025 Alaska Fisheries Science Center Seminar Series

The 2025 Alaska Fisheries Science Center Seminar Series provides a venue for researchers to present new research on fish, fisheries management, marine mammal ecology, and habitats across Alaska’s marine ecosystems. We encourage speakers to present work that is of broad interest to the Alaska marine science community, and welcome speakers and attendees from both inside and outside the Alaska Fisheries Science Center. The seminar series starts in late February and ends in early May. We host around 10 weekly talks on Tuesdays at 10 am Pacific Time, with speakers from both inside and outside of the Alaska Fisheries Science Center. 

We hope to see you there! Amanda.Warlick@noaa.gov and Rachel.Wuest@noaa.gov. 

2025 AFSC Seminar Series Overview Poster

2025 AFSC Seminar Series Poster

February 25, 2025 —Dana Wright

Dana Wright Presentation Flyer

Tuesday, February 25th @ 10 am Pacific

Right whales in the North Pacific: a decade of discovery through sound

The critically endangered eastern North Pacific right whale (Eubalaena japonica) is currently one of the rarest whale populations (n < 50), having been severely depleted by historic legal and illegal whaling. Despite their precarious status, little is known about their contemporary distribution and seasonal movements. During this seminar, I will present findings from over a decade of passive acoustic recordings from historical North Pacific right whale feeding areas, specifically the eastern Bering shelf, Aleutian Islands, and northern Gulf of Alaska. These passive acoustic data came from an existing network of long-term passive acoustic recorders maintained by Alaska Fisheries Science Center’s Marine Mammal Laboratory. Right whale detections reveal strong seasonality consistent with contemporary feeding grounds, with spatial and temporal variability linked to oceanographic and prey features. These findings provide new insights into their contemporary habitat use, which could inform ongoing revisions to critical habitat designations among changing ocean conditions.

WebEx Recording - 2025 Seminar Series: Dana Wright 

March 11, 2025 —Amy Van Cise

Amy Van Cise Presentation Flyer

Tuesday, March 11th @ 10 am Pacific

Building Bridges: New marine mammal research and collaborative opportunities at UW 

By way of introduction to the AFSC team of scientists, this seminar first introduces the research efforts of UW’s Whale and Dolphin Ecology lab, followed by a description of some programs of interest at UW that may support collaboration between the two organizations. Research at the Whale and Dolphin Ecology lab is primarily focused on studying marine mammal evolutionary ecology using a suite of ‘omics and acoustics approaches. Much of our research is focused on sociality - the suite of socially learned behaviors specific to a group of animals –as an integral ecological strategy that drives evolutionary processes. This research has included genetic and genomic sequencing to understand population structure and historical demographics or evolutionary processes, genetic metabarcoding to study diet or microbiomes, and eDNA to improve our understanding of 3D spatial distributions and population structure in elusive species. The lab is also involved in several acoustics endeavors, including studying the vocal behavior of Cook Inlet beluga whales and monitoring delphinid interactions with seaweed farms off the coast of Puerto Rico. More broadly, I will outline how we may use UW’s internship programs, marine mammal ecology course, and the UW SAFS graduate research program as potential avenues for collaboration between AFSC and the UW Whale and Dolphin Ecology lab in the areas of research, outreach, or education.

WebEx Recording - 2025 Seminar Series: Amy Van Cise: 

March 18, 2025 —Emily Reynolds and Hannah Wilson

Emily Reynolds and Hannah Wilson Presentation Flyer

Tuesday, March 18th @ 10 am Pacific

Aquaculture Opportunity Areas in Alaska: Science and Community-Driven Planning for Sustainable Aquaculture Development

Identifying Aquaculture Opportunity Areas (AOAs) in Alaska is a science and community-driven planning process to assist in the development of a sustainable seaweed and shellfish farming industry in State waters. By identifying suitable areas for multiple aquaculture operations through spatial analysis and the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) review process, AOAs aim to balance ecological, economic, and social considerations. For the spatial analysis, NOAA’s National Center for Coastal Ocean Science employed whole-ecosystem spatial modeling methods to incorporate the best available data and public input. A key consideration in AOA siting is the Alaska Department of Fish and Game’s “50-50 rule”, which requires that kelp farms source spores from a minimum of 50 unrelated individual organisms within 50 km of the farm each year. This rule ensures genetic diversity by allowing many local plants to contribute to the farm’s genetic makeup, ensuring that farm-released spores are genetically similar to wild stocks. To support this, a seaweed source inventory is being developed through a participatory mapping process, aiding in the AOA siting analysis.

WebEx Recording - 2025 Seminar Series: Hannah Wilson and Emily Reynolds: 

April 1, 2025 —Maia Kapur and Grant Adams

Maia Kapur and Grant Adams Presentation Flyer

Tuesday, April 1st @ 10 am Pacific

Performance of artificial intelligence methods in trait forecasting for fisheries management

Projections of population dynamics are the underpinning of scientific fisheries management. These typically include estimates of population processes conditioned on historical data, and a method to represent the management action (i.e., fishing quota) and its impact on the population. The weight-at-age of individual fish in the population or fishery has a strong impact on derived management quantities in Alaska, yet is often projected forward using a simple five-year average. This introduces the risk of bias in our assessment projections when true weight-at-age is higher (leading to foregone catch) or lower (leading to over-exploitation) than projected. Though a variety of methods have been proposed to estimate and project weight-at-age, the nature of the assessment cycle precludes rigorous simulation testing or method updates after the stock assessment has been completed. This talk will advocate for regular testing of weight-at-age projection models in sync with the assessment cycle. We will also introduce GrowthForecast, an R package in development that evaluates the retrospective projection skill of weight-at-age models developed across the center, the five-year average approach, and artificial intelligence (AI). Initial workflows with simulated and observed data will be presented. The presentation and R package aims to advance both best practices in the operational application of model projections and the novel application of AI in assessment.

WebEx Recording - 2025 Seminar Series: Maia Kapur and Grant Adams: 

April 8, 2025 — Cameron Van Horn

Cameron Van Horn Presentation Flyer

Tuesday, April 8th @ 10 am Pacific

Understanding data deletion in the North Pacific groundfish observer program

Fisheries observer programs represent a type of long-term ecological monitoring program (LTEM), and as such employ varied quality assurance (QA) and quality control (QC) methods to ensure data vital to sustainable fisheries management is of the highest quality. In the North Pacific Observer Program (NPOP), a significant element of the QA/QC chain is the final debriefing, an interview between trained, highly knowledgeable staff (a.k.a., debriefers) and fisheries observers returning from deployment. The purpose of the interview is to review all collected data to ensure compliance with collection standards and quality guidelines. To understand the impact of final debriefings on data quality in the NPOP, we summarized trends in how, where, and why debriefers deleted data during the interview stage from 2014-2023. We summarized deletions by calculating the percent of available data deleted by debriefers within the covariates of time (year), vessel class and gear type (as groups), observer experience (approximated by number of prior cruises), whether observers were deployed alone or with other observers to a vessel, and by deletion causes attributed by debriefers upon deletion. Our findings suggest debriefers in the NPOP rarely delete data en masse. The value of debriefing appears through the removal of biased or incorrectly transcribed data, especially aboard vessels fishing pot gear, and for observers with little experience and when deployed as the sole observer on a trip. These summaries demonstrate how debriefing acts as a vital component of fisheries observer programs to maintain high quality standards.

WebEx Recording - 2025 Seminar Series: Cameron Van Horn: 

April 15, 2025 — Arial Brewer

Arial Brewer Presentation Flyer

Tuesday, April 22nd @ 10 am Pacific

Listening to whales: using bioacoustics and behavior as a tool for conservation

Communication allows social species to exchange important information among group members, such as individual or group identity, predator presence, movement decisions, or the location of prey. In aquatic environments, acoustic signals are among the most effective forms of communication, primarily for cetaceans. Beluga whales, Delphinapterus leucas, are highly social and vocal, yet little is known about the functionality of their social calls. To examine context-dependent vocal behavior in beluga whales, we collected passive acoustic data and fine-scale behavioral observations for the endangered Cook Inlet population. We fit two mixed models to investigate the effect of group behavioral state, group size, calf presence, and tidal state on 1) calling rate (number of calls/minute) and 2) call category (whistles, pulsed calls, or combined calls). We also provide a descriptive analysis of vocal activity in relation to behavioral transitions, which suggests an increase in calling rate leading up to behavioral transitions. Understanding the connections between behavioral, social, and environmental factors on vocal communication can provide ecological insights into the functional roles of acoustic signals in social cetaceans and social species more broadly.

WebEx Recording - 2025 Seminar Series: Arial Brewer: 

April 22, 2025 — Molly McCormley

Molly McCormley Presentation Flyer

Tuesday, April 22nd @ 10 am Pacific

Parturition and pupping patterns of western Steller sea lions

Investigating parturition and pupping patterns can inform our understanding of yearly recruitment expectations and population fluctuations. Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) were listed as endangered in 1990 due to a dramatic decline in population abundance. The abundance of the western distinct segment is still decreasing and therefore has retained its endangered status. To gain insights about age-specific parturition and temporal patterns in pupping and survival, we examined data from a 17-year longitudinal study of Steller sea lions on Ugamak and Marmot Island rookeries, Alaska. Marking of Steller sea lions at these rookeries has occurred since 2000 and inference was based on a multi-state hierarchical model that accounted for uncertain observations concerning the reproductive status of females. Our analysis indicated a high probability for adult female Steller sea lions to pup annually from age 6 until around 15 years of age; rates for younger (but still sexually mature) females were much lower. Parturition probability was highest during the first half of June and declined steadily to the first week of July across all ages and rookeries, supporting previous research conducted at the same locations. Most observations concerning the reproductive status of adult female Steller sea lions were ambiguous (e.g., lying next to a pup vs. nursing a pup), highlighting the importance of a model-based approach that rigorously addresses uncertainty in mother-pup associations. Overall, these data further our understanding of pupping patterns, which will assist in future research investigating potential drivers of continued declining abundance in certain Steller sea lion populations.

WebEx Recording - 2025 Seminar Series: Molly McCormley: 

April 29, 2025 — Emily Ryznar

Emily Ryznar Presentation Flyer

Tuesday, April 29th @ 10 am Pacific

Fisheries-dependent distribution models to aid red king crab management in data-poor seasons

Persistent declines in red king crab (Paralithodes camchaticus) abundance in Bristol Bay, Alaska, have triggered recent fishery closures and heightened interest in conservation measures for the stock. However, fisheries-independent data are only collected in the summer, and this lack of seasonal distribution data in non-summer months hampers the evaluation of proposed management actions that target Bristol Bay red king crab (BBRKC) bycatch in groundfish fisheries active in the fall, winter, and spring. We addressed this issue by developing species distribution models for BBRKC using fisheries-dependent data as a step towards understanding factors regulating BBRKC spatial dynamics in non-summer months and improved scientific advice for management. Our specific objectives were to model BBRKC: 1) legal males in the fall; and 2) bycatch in non-pelagic trawl (NPT) groundfish fisheries during peak bycatch seasons (September-October, January-February, and April-May). For both objectives, we trained Boosted Regression Tree SDMs and evaluated out-of-sample predictive performance. Model evaluation metrics indicated good to excellent predictive ability for both objectives. These models are the first dynamic predictive tools to evaluate BBRKC distribution in data-poor periods and represent an important step towards operating models that may be used to evaluate proposed management actions.