Integrated Modeling and Research

Our Integrated Modeling and Research can be broken down into the following sub-themes: 

Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE)

• ESSR and the University of Washington are collaborating on an economically sophisticated Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands Pacific cod Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) that develops a seven fleet model of the BSAI Pacific cod fishery with haul-strategy specific age-selectivities that allows for the evaluation of differences in the age composition of Pacific cod as well as profitability of each fleet. Contact: stephen.kasperski@noaa.gov.
• The Valuing Fishery Independent Surveys project in the Eastern Bering Sea also adopts and MSE approach, more details below/on that page.
• Contact: stephen.kasperski@noaa.gov.

Bioeconomic Models Based on Stock Assessments for Specific Crab and Groundfish Fisheries:

• BSAI Pacific Cod, GOA Pacific Cod, BSAI Northern Rock Sole
• Bristol Bay Red King Crab, EBS Snow Crab, EBS Tanner Crab
• Effects of climate change and ocean acidification on maximum economic yield (MEY) supports elements of NOAA’s Next Generation Stock Assessment modeling through the application of environmental covariates
• Bioeconomic models integrate economic and population dynamics models are used to analyze effects of human activities including fishing and environmental change on fish stocks, catch, fishing effort, and profits. The core economic components are based on optimization and simulation methods.
• Contact: michael.dalton@noaa.gov

Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEAs) and Social-Ecological Systems (SES) Research

• Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEA) are an approach to Ecosystem-Based Management. This approach integrates all components of an ecosystem, including humans, into the decision-making process so that managers can balance trade-offs and determine what is more likely to achieve their desired goals. ESSR leads human dimensions integration in Alaska IEA projects in the Arctic and the Gulf of Alaska as well as in the national IEA Human Dimensions Working Group. 
• Alaska IEA Projects have to date included work on Social-Ecological Systems (Rosellon-Druker et al. 2021) and community well-being (Szymkowiak and Kasperski 2021) for the Place-based IEA in Sitka, Assessing the state of coupled Social-Ecological Modeling in Support of Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management in the U.S. (Kasperski et al. 2021),  Using integrated ecosystem assessments to build resilient ecosystems, communities, and economies (Spooner et al. 2021), ESSR collaborations presented in the annual California Current IEA Report (Appendix S: Fishery Diversification Indicators (p. S-91)), 
  • Bering Sea and Arctic IEA
    • Contact: sarah.wise@noaa.gov
  • Gulf of Alaska IEA
    • Contact: marysia.szymkowiak@noaa.gov 
  • IEA Human Dimensions WG
    • Contact: stephen.kasperski@noaa.gov 

Valuing Fishery Independent Surveys

• ESSR, SSMA, RACE and the University of Washington are collaborating on a Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) project for the Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) to evaluate the value of information resulting from changes in the distribution, frequency, or timing of the EBS shelf and EBS slope surveys. Currently we are completing our model of EBS Pacific cod and soon be moving on model the dynamics of greenland turbot and yellowfin sole to provide a comparison across species with different habitat preferences.  Economics
  • Contact: stephen.kasperski@noaa.gov.
• ESSR has also collaborated on several efforts to assess the economic value of changes to fishery independent survey design in the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands.
  • Contact: stephen.kasperski@noaa.gov.

Ecosystem Services 

• Our staff are engaged in research and working groups focused on better understanding marine ecosystem services.  This includes work to understand how their value can be measured and incorporated into policy analytic frameworks to better inform decision-making. 
• Contact: dan.lew@noaa.gov  

Social and Economic Information for Annual ABC Determination: ESPs and EPRs

• As part of NOAA’s Next Generation Stock Assessment initiative, ESSR collaborates with Crab and Groundfish Plan Teams, stock assessment authors, and other AFSC personnel to produce Ecosystem and Socioeconomic Profile (ESP) documents and Economic Performance Reports (EPRs) at the stock-specific level, providing and interpreting key economic and social indicators to support Plan Team and SSC development of more integrated assessment modeling approaches to conservation management. 
• Contact: brian.garber-yonts@noaa.gov

Cross Regional Perspectives on Non-Commercial Fishing (CESAN)

• The Cross Regional Comparison of Cultural Ecosystem Services and Non-commercial Fishing (CESAN) project explores the cultural importance and function of non-commercial fishing in the North Pacific. This project explores two NMFS management regions (AFSC and PIFSC), to explore cultural ecosystem services, cultural functions and meanings, and the roles of relational ties in fishing communities in the Bering Sea, Arctic, and West Hawai‘i regions, within the context of federal fisheries management. 
• Contact: sarah.wise@noaa.gov

Climate Integrated Modeling (CLIM) Projects

• The Alaska Climate Integrated Modeling (ACLIM) and Gulf Of Alaska Climate Integrated Modeling (GOACLIM) projects are interdisciplinary collaborations to project and evaluate climate impacts on marine fisheries, fleets, and fishing communities in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska, respectively. This multi-disciplinary modeling effort applies a regional lens to global climate models. Scientists are combining regional socio-economic, oceanographic data and biological models including single-species, multispecies and ecosystem models to develop a regional multi-model (an ensemble model) to provide quantitative advice to support resource management given climate variability and long-term change.
• ACLIM
• GOACLIM

IERP: Pelagic-benthic decoupling? Ecosystem restructuring in the Northern Bering and Chukchi seas

• A key feature of Arctic ecosystems has been strong pelagic-benthic coupling, whereby a large portion of pelagic production sinks to the benthos and supports a rich and diverse community including benthic-foraging marine mammals and birds. It has been hypothesized that phytoplankton blooms will occur later in the spring due to ocean warming and loss of sea ice, and more production will be consumed in the pelagic zone rather than exported to the benthos. To address these questions we have formed an interdisciplinary team of leading experts to address three ecological and management endpoints: Survey optimization (e.g., evaluating sampling scenarios that could efficiently reduce uncertainty in future expeditions); Marine spatial information (e.g., identifying changes in resource densities for key subsistence populations in the historical hunting areas of Alaska Native communities); and Ecological outcomes (e.g., identifying whether benthic and/or pelagic biogeographic provinces are shifting).
• Contact: sarah.wise@noaa.gov

Aquaculture Opportunity Areas (AOAs)

•  Alaska has recently been chosen by NOAA Fisheries to look for an Aquaculture Opportunity Area that can environmentally, socially, and economically support commercial mariculture operations. We are collaborating with interdisciplinary scientists to predict the financial viability of algae and shellfish mariculture operations under the presence of environmental (climate change, HABs, etc.) and market risks for various locations along the Alaskan coast. These outputs will inform potential and existing farmers, managers, and the public on the potential risks of operating a mariculture operation and the potential profitability. 
• Contact: russel.a.dame@noaa.gov or marysia.szymkowiak@noaa.gov

Regional Economic Models for Pollock, Cod, Bristol Bay Red King Crab, EBS Snow Crab:

• Combine biological/ecosystem models with regional economic models such as computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to assess the effects of climate change-driven alterations in Alaska fisheries.
• Contact: chang.seung@noaaa.gov