State of the Ecosystem Reports
The State of the Ecosystem reports provide a synthesis of the current status of the Northeast Shelf marine ecosystems (Georges Bank, Gulf of Maine, and the Mid-Atlantic Bight). They are developed for the New England and the Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Councils. These annual, collaboratively produced reports inform the councils about ecological, oceanographic, and socioeconomic aspects of the ecosystem—from fishing engagement to climate conditions.
View the 2026 Summary report New England (PDF, 5 pgs)
View the 2026 Summary report Mid-Atlantic (PDF, 4 pgs)
View the complete 2026 New England report (PDF, 79pgs)
View the complete 2026 Mid-Atlantic report (PDF, 72pgs)
View the technical documentation
2025 Highlights
The Northeast U.S. region experienced colder than average ocean temperatures in most seasons, despite record warm global ocean and air temperatures. Similar to 2024, oceanographic and ecological conditions reflected cooler water and changing species abundance, distribution, and timing.
Fishing Observations
Members of the fishing community reported cooler water temperatures and shared observations from the 2025 fishing season including:
- Reports of record levels of white marlin, and higher abundance of billfish, sandlance, Illex squid and Atlantic mackerel than in recent years.
- Observations of some species (Atlantic mackerel, striped bass, red drum, bluefish, and other gamefish) showed shifting distributions and unpredictable timing.
- Good hook and line fishing near the wind turbines.
Ocean Forecasts
The 2026 reports contain the first operational seasonal and decadal ocean forecasts for U.S. coastal fisheries regions. The forecasts are derived from the Northwest Atlantic regional Modular Ocean Model (MOM6). The seasonal forecasts predicted cooler to near average bottom temperatures for the winter and spring and above average conditions for parts of the Northeast Shelf in the fall. The decadal forecast predicts a return to near average bottom temperatures over the next 10 years.
Environmental Change and Ecosystem Risks
Climate and ecosystem change can directly and indirectly create risks to meeting fisheries management objectives by affecting the distribution, seasonal timing, productivity, and physiology of marine species.
Risks to Managing Spatially:
- Observations: Species distributions are trending to the northeast and into deeper water.
- Potential Impacts: Spatial mis-allocation of quotas may lead to unmet quotas, increased discards, and/or miscalculated fishing targets.
Risks to Managing Seasonally:
- Observations: Seasonal spawning and migration timing has changed for some Council-managed species and whales.
- Potential Impacts: Spawning closures, seasonal openings, and seasonal quota allocations may be less effective if mis-timed with biological events, resulting in decreased seafood production.
Risks to Setting Catch Limits:
- Observations: Productivity and fish condition have changed across the ecosystem because of ecological and environmental changes.
- Potential Impacts: Unaccounted for and unknown productivity changes may lead to misspecified quotas and rebuilding plans, especially if they are not considered in stock reference points and short-term stock projections.
Risks of Marine Development:
- Observations: Wind lease areas have historically been used for fishing and as habitat for North Atlantic right whales. Only 6 of 38 offshore wind leases in the Northeast are operational and/or under construction.
- Potential Impacts: Average annual revenue in active project areas is <5% for most ports and for most Council-managed species. Project areas overlap with North Atlantic right whale habitat.
Report Format
The Northeast U.S. Shelf is one of the most productive marine ecosystems in the world. The ecosystem is changing and these changes are affecting the ecosystem services it provides. These reports synthesize ecosystem information to better meet fishery management objectives. The reports are organized into three sections:
- Performance measured against ecosystem-level management objectives
- Potential risks to meeting fishery management objectives such as climate and other ocean uses, including offshore marine development
- Highlights of current and recent observations
Additional information on the indicators and data used in the report can be found in the online indicator catalog, and methods and meta data are available in the technical documentation.
Characterizing Ecosystem Change for Fishery Management
We use three overarching concepts in the report, all of which influence the structure and function of this complex ecosystem:
- Multiple system driver
- Regime shifts
- Ecosystem reorganization
Physical, chemical, biological, and human factors comprise the multiple system drivers that influence each component of the ecosystem and the services it provides. Changes in those drivers can lead to regime shifts—large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem. Regime shifts and changes in how the multiple system drivers interact can result in ecosystem reorganization, as species and humans respond and adapt to the new environment. We are working to better characterize ecosystem changes and identify the early warning signs of future changes to understand the implications and improve management advice.
Multiple Ecosystem Drivers
Multiple competing factors cause change in an ecosystem. Numerous environmental drivers influence the quality and distribution of habitat in the ocean, which affects the amount and diversity of fish in the system. These environmental drivers, combined with social and economic drivers, influence the range of fishing opportunities and the seafood, recreation, and other services we derive from the ocean. Not all drivers are changing at the same rate, thus the effects on different parts of the ecosystem are not uniform. We are working to show both how systems are changing and what factors are driving those changes.
Regime Shifts & Ecosystem Reorganization
Ecosystem change can happen rapidly, resulting in large, abrupt and persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem. It is important to identify these “regime shifts” because our historical knowledge of how the system works may not apply under the present conditions. Ecosystem reorganization occurs as species and humans respond and adapt to the new environment. Changing habitat conditions influence the range and distribution of resident species and create the conditions for new species to take up residence.
Performance Relative to Fishery Management Objectives
To evaluate fishery management performance, we examine indicators related to broad, ecosystem-level fishery management objectives. We also provide hypotheses on the implications of these trends—why we are seeing them, what’s driving them, and potential or observed regime shifts or changes in ecosystem structure. Identification of multiple drivers, regime shifts, and potential changes to ecosystem structure can help managers make changes to meet objectives and to prioritize upcoming issues and risks.
Ecosystem-scale Fishery Management Objectives
We assess six categories of fisheries management objectives and evaluate how the drivers of each are changing over time:
- Seafood production: total landings; landings by feeding guild; recreational harvest
- Drivers: stock status; biomass by feeding guild
- Profits: revenue; cost and profitability indices
- Drivers: price and volume components of revenue
- Recreation: angler trip; recreational catch diversity
- Drivers: recreational fleet diversity, large pelagic fishing regulations
- Social & Cultural: community commercial fishing activity; community environmental variability risk indicators; risk factors
- Drivers: Crew Survey
- Protected Species: bycatch; population (adults and juveniles) size; mortalities
Stability: synthesis of information to assess fishery and ecosystem volatility; adaptive capacity; shifts from baseline
- Drivers: community composition; zooplankton diversity; fish traits
Integrated Ecosystem Assessment
These reports are part of a larger, iterative Integrated Ecosystem Assessment approach, a component of Ecosystem-Based Fishery Management. The approach integrates physical, biological, economic, and social components of the Northeast Shelf marine ecosystems into the decision-making process. This allows managers to balance trade-offs and determine what is more likely to achieve their desired goals. The reports are produced by the Northeast Fisheries Science Center with collaborators from academic research institutions, non-profit organizations, and state agencies. The State of the Ecosystem reports are used in the Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management Council's annual Risk Assessment and in the New England Fisheries Management Council's Risk Policy Working Group.
Archived Reports
Mid-Atlantic State of the Ecosystem Reports: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
New England State of the Ecosystem Reports: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
