Climate, Ecosystems, and Fisheries Initiative: Regional Activities

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NOAA is investing $40 million over 3 years (FY24–26) from the Inflation Reduction Act to launch implementation of the Climate, Ecosystems, and Fisheries Initiative (CEFI). This cross-NOAA effort will build decision support systems in all U.S. marine regions and the Great Lakes. These decision support systems will provide resource managers, local communities, and other decision-makers with information to prepare for and adapt to rapidly changing conditions. The decision support systems will provide early warnings and forecasts of future ecosystem conditions, information on what’s at risk, and strategies for increasing resilience. 

The Climate, Ecosystems, and Fisheries Initiative is part of a $1.27 billion NOAA investment from the Inflation Reduction Act to safeguard America’s marine and Great Lakes resources, coastal communities, and economies in the face of changing oceans and climate.

Alaska

Alaska Decision Support System ($2.2 million/year)

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The Alaska Decision Support System will provide fisheries managers, coastal communities and other decision-makers with early warnings, risk assessments, tools, and strategies to increase resilience and adaptation to rapidly changing oceans. 

This effort is building on CEFI pilot projects in the Bering Sea (the Alaska Climate Integrated Modeling Project) and the Gulf of Alaska (the Gulf of Alaska Climate Integrated Modeling Project). It will deliver state-of-the-art forecasts of future ocean and ecosystem conditions in the Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska, and Arctic. The System will accelerate support for climate-informed fisheries management, protected resources conservation and coastal community adaptation.  

Specific projects in this region include:

• Deliver high-resolution forecasts of future ocean conditions (seasonal, interannual, and multidecadal) for use in identifying impacts, risks, and adaptation strategies
• Identify current and expected future impacts of climate change on fish stocks and fisheries in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska
• Use forecasts to predict how species distributions of cold-water fish, crab, and marine mammals may respond to changing ocean conditions
• Develop climate-enhanced fisheries management strategy evaluations that assess harvest control rules and socioeconomic factors for Alaskan fisheries
• Expand partnerships with Alaska fishing communities to identify impacts, needs, and strategies to adapt to changing climate and ocean conditions

Great Lakes

Great Lakes Decision Support System ($1.2 million/year)

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Fisheries in the Great Lakes are managed by state, provincial, and tribal agencies in the United States and Canada under a binational agreement. NOAA will support the fisheries research and management network in the region through CEFI’s development of hindcasts, forecasts, and projections of Great Lakes conditions and engaging in collaborative research. 

These regional modeling efforts by the NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab will be coupled with existing modeling tools. They will provide agencies and partners with information on changing climate and environmental conditions to help reduce impacts and increase resilience of resources and communities. 

Specific projects in this region include:

• Deliver high-resolution forecasts of future Great Lakes conditions (seasonal, interannual, and multidecadal) for use in identifying impacts, risks, and adaptation strategies
• Develop ecosystem models to understand the effects of changing temperature and vertical mixing patterns on food webs and the potential effects on native and introduced cold, cool, and warm water fish species
• Provide modeled past and future environmental conditions for critical habitats to support restoration efforts for native whitefish species
• Investigate the role of climate and ecosystem factors in altering the survival rates of Pacific salmon species after stocking in different management areas

Northeast

Northeast Decision Support System ($2.0 million/year)

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The Northeast Decision Support System will provide fisheries managers, coastal communities and other decision-makers in the Northeast with early warnings, risk assessments, tools, and strategies to increase resilience and adaptation to rapidly changing oceans. 

This effort is building on work of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center and many partners including the Northeast Climate Integrated Modeling Initiative. The Northeast Decision Support System will deliver state-of-the-art forecasts of future ocean and ecosystem conditions. It will also accelerate production of information on the future distribution and abundance of fish stocks, advance protected resources conservation and support coastal community adaptation. 

Specific projects in this region include:

• Deliver high-resolution forecasts of future ocean conditions (seasonal, interannual, and multidecadal) for use in identifying impacts, risks, and adaptation strategies
• Integrate climate-informed environmental data into stock assessments for important species such as yellowtail flounder and black sea bass
• Develop models of future species distributions and marine heatwave predictions, which will be integrated into products such as annual State of the Ecosystem reports and climate vulnerability assessments to provide information for climate-ready decision-making
• Use CEFI ocean forecasts and projections to support risk assessments and adaptation strategies for climate-informed management of national marine sanctuaries 

Pacific Islands

Pacific Islands Decision Support System ($1.8 million/year)

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The Pacific Islands Decision Support System will provide information on past, current, and likely future ocean conditions to develop early warnings, risk assessments, and strategies for resilience and adaptation to rapidly changing ecosystems in the Hawaiian archipelago. This information will allow NOAA Fisheries and partners to accelerate implementation of climate-ready fisheries management and community adaptation in the vast Pacific Islands region. 

Specific projects in this region include:

• Deliver high-resolution forecasts of future ocean conditions (seasonal, interannual, and multidecadal) for use in identifying impacts, risks, and adaptation strategies
• Develop ecosystem models for the Central North Pacific to investigate possible future impacts to nearshore and open ocean ecosystems as a result of changing ocean conditions, such as changes in predators and prey, species distributions, migration behaviors, and catch rates of fishing fleets
• Assess socioeconomic impacts such as potential market price changes as a result of changing ocean conditions in U.S. and international waters
• Work with coastal communities throughout the Pacific to identify priority concerns, as climate change and other human-caused factors affect cultural connections with coral reefs. This information will allow NOAA to develop indicators and thresholds that can be used to monitor impacts of climate change and evaluate the effectiveness of management approaches.

Southeast

Southeast Decision Support System ($2.0 million/year)

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The Southeast Decision Support System will use the state-of-the-art regional projections of ocean conditions and participatory agreement to provide fisheries managers, fishing communities, and other decision-makers with information on expected impacts and possible adaptation strategies in the South Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean.

Specific projects in this region include:

• Deliver high-resolution forecasts of future ocean conditions (seasonal, interannual, and multidecadal) for use in identifying impacts, risks, and adaptation strategies
• Conduct scenario planning to help decision-makers assess likely future conditions of the shrimp fishery under climate change and inform adaptation planning efforts for shrimping communities
• Evaluate management strategies to guide actionable, climate-ready management approaches for a suite of fisheries
• Research impacts of changing environmental conditions on recruitment rates of commercially important reef fish species such as red snapper to improve stock assessment projections
• Provide regional fishery management councils with up-to-date information on ecosystem changes, including expected trends in federally managed fish species and the communities that depend on them

West Coast

West Coast Decision Support System ($4.1 million/year)

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The West Coast Decision Support System will provide fisheries managers, coastal communities and other decision-makers with early warnings and forecasts, risk assessments, tools, and strategies to increase resilience and adaptation to rapidly changing oceans. The System is composed of two components—Northwest and Southwest—to address the many needs across this broad region.

This effort is building on a number of existing efforts, including the Future Seas project. Future Seas explores the potential effects of climate change on swordfish, albacore, and Pacific sardine fisheries in the California Current ecosystem. It has demonstrated that modeling changes in these fisheries under projected future ocean conditions can help anticipate expected socioeconomic impacts and identify climate-resilient management strategies for decision-makers. The System will help accelerate these efforts to provide information and tools for climate-informed resource management and community adaptation.

Specific projects in this region include:

• Deliver high-resolution forecasts of future ocean conditions (seasonal, interannual, and multidecadal) for use in identifying impacts, risks, and adaptation strategies
• Produce estimates of species distributions for federally managed fisheries such as Pacific hake, which are managed through a bilateral treaty with Canada
• Enhance climate-informed stock assessments for select commercially important groundfish species
• Provide environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic data for risk assessments to help reduce whale entanglement in fishing gear